How do you pick the odds of winning?

How do you pick the odds of winning?

Odds tell a lot about the probable outcome of a football match. If the odds are in favor of a team that means the team is stronger than the opponent or may have outdone it many times in the past. There are other factors too. The whole process of picking the odds is more or less research and observation-based. A little knowledge of statistics is applied too. Explained here are some methods that help pick the odds of winning.

Using odds probability calculator

If you have followed the FIFA World Cup 2022 odds, you will find 5-6 teams topping the odds chart. The odds change as the qualifiers progress and the teams’ strategies are on full display. You will find new odds given as Brazil – +450, England – +550, France – +600.

In odds probability calculator, you will use these figures to predict the bet and also to find the margins available on the bet.

P (A) = P (A)/P (A+B)

A = Brazil

B= France

If hypothetically speaking, Brazil and France contend the final with the odds continuing to be the same, P(A) or probability of Brazil winning the game will be = 450/(450+550) = 0.45 or 45%. Thus, picking the odd in favor of Brazil gives you 45% chance of winning.

You have to combine this calculation with the current performance, number of matches won, the quality of game displayed and the position in the group. If the group has all weak teams as compared to your favorite team, it is likely to enter the knock-offs with more points in hand.

Using the research and trends analysis

Are the trends tilted towards your favorite team? Or are the favorite teams continuing their past performances? If the answer to these question is yes, you can pick odds that favor your favorite team.

The high probability of a team winning the match arises from:

  1. Motivation with which it enters the match: A team who has lost to the rivalry in the past is more motivated to settle the score. Accordingly, the odds will be seen a bit shifted to this highly motivated team. If the match is a champion decider, a final, or the one that can save from relegation, you will have to be extra cautious with the odds as both teams will be giving a tough fight.
  2. Current form and performance: The team that has ruled the major part of the tournament will be brimming with confidence. If there is a team that has won only the few crucial matches or have won the matches by a last moment miracle, then it is an underdog in disguise. You must pay attention to the technical competence of the team along with the current record to pick the odd.
  3. Low odd means better chances of bet ending in a win: Low odds are mostly assigned to matches where the outcome is obvious. The strong team meeting a weak team has a low odd. Similarly, the game where the teams’ styles complement, the draw bet has a low odd. You can apply this strategy to pick the odd of winning the bet and improve chance of making money.

Read the news and the tipster opinion

News is the best source to understand a team’s mental and physical form. Many things happen outside the field that may bring down the team morale. Key players’ absence due to reasons like banning from the games, misconduct outside the field or their personal problems do affect the teams’ performance on the field. Following the news may help you have the idea of the current situation. You will find the odds shifted as an impact of news many times.

The tipsters’ opinion matter too! They are the professionals who have followed the game more closely, have been the part of betting syndicates or have access to the insider news. Their research tools are up-to-date too. All these factors translate into better winning percentage and lots of profits. You can team with these tipsters and make a list of odds to pick to match with your research’s result. Thus, you can find a readymade betting support or the support for picking the odds of winning by referring to the tips these professionals provide.

Have knowledge of value in betting

Value is an interesting concept to learn. Betting sites are not the ultimate game deciders. They may have better prediction tools, but none can be assumed to be 100% accurate. After all, human factor working on the field can affect the outcome in the most unexpected ways. Hence, whenever your research says that the odds assigned are more than the actual chances of winning the odd, you have dual advantage. The low odd in actual means high chance of bet turning into a win, and high odd assigned gives you more returns than expected from the same bet.

Thus, do the research, understand the odds that suit any game or bet and compare it with those assigned. The value-laden odd is where a lot of earning lies for you and will help you stay in the game for longer.

Understand how odds work

To pick the odds of winning, you need to understand them first. The odds can be displayed in decimals, fractions or in the form of moneylines depending upon the area of the world where you are betting.

The simple rule always is the lower the odds, the more the probability of a team to win. Thus, in the moneyline system, you will find strong contenders assigned the negative odd. For example, in EPL, Manchester United will have negative odds as compared to a low-ranking team on the tally table.

To conclude,

Picking the odds of winning requires math calculations, research, strong gut instinct and a lot of knowledge of various betting strategies. Compare odds from various betting sites to understand the trend and to ascertain the possibility of a value bet. With these pearls of knowledge in hand, you can take better chances at football bets and have winning odds most of the time.