Summary:
For many betters, football betting begins as a game of pure chances and luck. With the understanding and use of probability models and statistical data analysis, they are in a better position to start winning. Various factors such as team performance, bankroll efficiency, weather and ground conditions etc play a major role in helping betters make the right decision and improve their chances of winning. Let us explore how we learn to use probability to our benefit and win more frequently and consistently.
What is Probability in Football Betting?
To understand probability in betting, we need to understand probability in reality. In simple terms, probability is a mathematical concept that is used to measure the likelihood of something to happen. In case of football betting, probability can quite clearly mean the evaluation or assessing of chances of an event occurring, i.e. the chances of a particular winning a match, a player’s performance in a match including the number of goals, possible outcomes in a match, scoreline etc. Thus, probability can make it possible to analyze various factors affecting the outcome of a game and make more-informed and positive betting decisions.
- Odds and Implied Probability
The use of odds is commonplace for many bookmakers who use them to represent the chances of an event occurring. The bookmakers use the odds based on their own analysis of the different probabilities and resulting possible outcomes. However, it is important to understand that bookmakers also include a fraction of their margin into this as they need to ensure that they also earn a profit through this. Therefore, it is critical to understand how the odds correspond to the probabilities and likewise find the opportunities to place a winning bet. For instance, a bookmaker can give a lower chance of winning percentage to a team as they can factor in their own profit. Therefore, you need to use your own assessment to put a higher bet on a particular team, even though the bookmarker underestimated the team’s chances of winning.
- Implied Probability vs. True Probability
Simply put, implied probability is the one that is suggested by the odds put down by the bookmakers. In order to ensure value in a bet, compare both implied probability of the bookmaker to your assessment of the probability of an event. In case, your probability is higher than the odds or the implied probability of a bookmaker, then you have a higher chance of making a profit. To understand this better, consider that you believe a team has a 70% chance of winning, while bookmaker’s off imply that it has 60% chance of winning. Therefore, you will have a higher chance of winning a profit in this case.
Use of Statistical Models for Match Analysis
- Expected Goals (xG)
xG or Expected Goals is a critical matric considered to analyze the performance of a team and predict the outcome of a football match. It is considered as a crucial metrics that helps in accurate evaluation of a football team’s attack as well as defense tactics and performances. This metric does a lot more than just focusing on the number of goals scored or conceded by a team as it takes into account the winning chances created by the team using its defense and attack strategies and their conversions. Every shot taken by a player and every opportunity built is carefully analyzed. Each shot is given an xG value. The value broadly depends on various factors including type of shot, shot strategy, distance from goal post etc.
For example, a shot that is not taken under pressure, is well-aimed and where the striker is in a one-on-one situation with the goalkeeper has a higher xG value than one taken in a pressure situation or a shot that is hit quite from the goal post, outside the box. The proper analysis of these xG labelled shots helps betters make better assessments of a team’s performance and indicates their ability to create winning chances or give chances to their opponents. It is also important to understand that some teams do better than their xG as they can have some good days while some score below their xG as they might just spring back in good form in no time. Considering all these factors, xG is a quality metric to be considered by the betters to improve their chances of winning and having a thick profit.
- Poisson Distribution:
Poisson Distribution is a popular statistical model that helps predict football match outcomes fairly accurately. It is a widely used probability model that is used by the betters to specifically predict the number of goals a team might score in a football match. This model is similar to other statistical models that consider a team’s previous match performances into the equation and predicts that chances of a team to score the number of goals. The model clearly depends on the average goals scored per game by a particular team. This popular model has a few drawbacks though as it does not take into account a variety of factors in a match, however, it can still be instrumental in accurately predicting the number of goals that a team can score in a match.
For instance, if a team scores 2.5 goals per game on an average, the Poisson Distribution model will estimate that the team has a likelihood of scoring 0,1,2, 3 or more goals in their forthcoming match. Therefore, the model can be a great indicator and support the betters in making accurate predictions with respect to some crucial outcomes of a football match including the number of goals scored by a team or predict the score for the match.
- Elo Ratings:
To understand and better measure the winning chances of a team, it is important to understand the relative strength of the teams and well they are pitted against their opponents. The Elo Ratings is a known statistical model that has been considered by many betters for its accurate and quite conclusive relative measurement of a team’s strength. Elo Ratings is a rating system that is used to rank a team based on their relative strength. The latter depends on the team’s match results as well as the strength of the opposition. A particular team stands to gain or lose points depending on the outcome of the matches. The strength of their opponents plays a critical factor and is an interesting way of assessing a team’s chances of winning their next match.
The rating system helps in identifying teams that have been placed high or low by the bookmakers. A team with a higher Elo Rating is predicted by the bookmakers to have a higher chance of winning than a team that has a lower Elo Rating. The baseline remains a team’s performance against a particular team or gauging the relative strength of a team.
Common Mistakes to Avoid to Ensure Profitable Betting
Careless or Carefree Predictions
Be careful about being too confident about your predictions. Even if you have food experience behind you and understand the nuances of probability quite well, you can still make a mistake while predicting the outcome of a football match. Football, like many team-based games, is unpredictable in nature and some teams can outperforms their odds. So, it is important to not risk anything beyond a certain limit. Use your reasoning while remaining realistic about your chances of placing a profitable bet.
Not considering External Factors
One of the most common mistakes made by many betters, especially new ones, is not considering the external factors while predicting results for a match. Various factors such as players’ injuries, a team’s home ground benefits, weather conditions, the reputation of a referee, a team’s morale based on past performance etc. play a significant role in deciding the course of a match. Therefore, not considering these factors while making predictions can be a costly mistake for any better. It is best to make a well-informed decision taking all these factors into account along with the statistical models and data analysis into play.
Chasing Losses
After losing on predictions in a series, many bettors increase their stakes in order to recover some of their losses. This is a poor habit, also known as “chasing losses.” It can lead to more significant losses and further poor decisions. Always stick to your betting strategy and bet sizes, irrespective of the recent outcomes of your betting.
Conclusion
Probability is considered a good strategic approach to improve your winning chances in football betting. By applying the various statistical models elaborated above, you can improve the way you assess the performances and predict the results of a match in a more accurate and informed manner. If you plan to win consistently and make good profits, it is important to take a holistic view and analyze all the possible metrics before making a decision. In the end, the betters need to acknowledge that football is an unpredictable sport and the outcome may or may not match the predictions made. Therefore, make careful and well-calculated predictions and reduce the loss margin wherever possible using constant refining of your betting strategies.