Odds are the transactional unit of any betting site. The bettors can find an online betting slip where the odds on any conditions are mentioned. They fill the stake amount they intend to put down and scoop profits as per the odds assigned in case of winning the bet. Though the process looks quite simple, a lot of homework goes behind the scenes before taking this last step. Apart from providing information on how much money one can win, the bettors can also derive other facts from the odds. Let’s find out how bettors can find the likelihood of winning or a draw from odds.
Which odds are likely to draw?
When the Correct Score is predicted to be 1-1, 0-0 or 2-2 and has low odds, the likelihood of the bet ending in a draw is quite high. The low odds on the low scoring matches indicate that the fight for goal is going to be a tough one. It can be the result when the contending teams are quite comparable in ranks, fighting style and have balanced attacking and defending sides. Half-time/Full-time predictions of less than 3 goals are also more likely to head towards a draw.
Draw mostly happens when the teams are happy sharing a point. If there is no old score to be settled, or the place in the ranking chart is already finalized and the result of the match is not going to affect it, the motivation level of teams to win is low. So, they may play an average game and may head towards a drawn match. For betting purposes, only the 90-minutes’ game is considered. Though as per new rules, a clear winner is decided with a super over, it does not count in the betting results.
Another bet that indicates a draw is the Under 2.5 goals market. Under 2.5 goals, too, means that the number of goals posted in the match will be less than or equal to 2. Thus, the match is likely to have long dribbling sessions and very few nerve-wrecking moments leading to a goal. The odds between 2-4 on Under 2.5 goals market show the likelihood of a draw result in the upcoming game.
Apart from analyzing the odds, the patterns in the tournaments are studied too. Some tournaments like EPL are known for having about 20-25% matches ending in a draw. So, if the odds are low for any match ending in a draw in the EPL competition, the safe bet will be to back the draw.
Which odds are likely to win in football?
The winning odds in football are usually less than 3. If the odds assigned are 2, then the chances of winning are 1/2= 50%. So, both the teams will have 50% chance of winning; accordingly, the results of bets emerge. Similarly, the odds of 3.0 means that the chances of teams winning the match are roughly 30-33%.
Probability analysis and expected goals figures are used to form odds. The punters can calculate the total number of goals scored over the number of matches played to find expected goal probability. Based on this figure, odds are formed. To level the field for all types of teams, the bookies assign handicap at the very start of the match. For example, favorites are given minus odds, say -3, and the underdogs are given plus odds, for instance, +4, etc. If bookies have missed any important factor and assigned odds higher than the instance deserves, it creates a value bet for the punters. They can cash on the probability discrepancies across the sites and can have some value bets in their kitty.
All odds less than 3 make a good case for winning bets. However, other factors like match conditions, player form and absence of key players, and other new changes in management, along with travel and weather conditions are to be considered to find out any possibility of an upset. So, studying odds is just the tip of an iceberg and these are to be studied in relation to other factors to get a clearer picture.
Which odds are likely to win?
Usually, low odds are likely to win. By assigning low odds, the bookies try to limit their payout liability. So, they assign low odds to those conditions that are most likely to turn true. In a football game, the low odds mean any figure below 3. The matches where the combat involves a strong team and weak team, the odds on the stronger side are usually low. Sometimes, the bookies end up inflating the odds as they include the commission also, to protect themselves from the consequences of bets’ result and assure earnings. It makes a good case for value bet and punters can benefit from it if they have assessed the conditions correctly.
In the current season of EPL, Manchester United, which used to be among top 6 at some time in the past, is struggling to make a comeback. So, if only past records are considered, the odds on Man Utd team may be assigned low, but that will be a hasty decision to make. The current situation has to be considered and all factors leading to poor performance of the team has to be studied to understand what the right odds will be for this team.
When Arsenal, ranked 4 meets Leicester, ranked 15 on the former’s home ground, the odds on Arsenal are understandably low at -550, where Leicester is assigned +1700, which definitely is a huge difference. Thus, the odds on the Arsenal team can be considered most likely to win.
On the other hand, Everton and Crystal Palace are assigned the odds of +170 and +162 respectively, which are quite comparable. Hence, it will be tough for the punters to make a correct guess about the possible winner of this match. So, apart from odds, the teams’ strengths from various perspectives have to be assessed to make a correct prediction. This is how odds lay the groundwork for research and encourage punters to dig deeper and correlate odds with prevailing conditions to find out the likeliness of winning odds.
Which odds mostly wins?
The smaller odds mostly win. Smaller odds means that the bookmakers are saying chances of occurrence of the event are high. If the odds are below 3.0, the likelihood of occurrence of an event is high. So, the ones who want to move with caution and don’t take risks may back the side that has smaller odds. This strategy is known as going with the trend and is adopted to evert risks as far as possible. The other side of the coin is a long odds, which means that a punter is likely to earn a bigger payout if the result comes in the favor of this side. So, those punters who are risk-takers and may have identified a value due to discrepancies in odds can pick this side and take home a bigger income parcel.
Some of the situations which are most likely to be the result of a bet are:
- A strong team playing an underdog in the home ground
- Best players or goal scorers are in their best form and contributing significantly to the team’s performance
- High percentage of home wins and away wins in the past records indicate overall high strength and eventually, higher chances of winning the match
- Low odds assigned to a 1-1, 0-0 correct score bet can help predict a draw
- BTTS percentage from the past scores chart can help indicate the possibility of BTTS-yes in the coming match.
Calculation table for deriving probability from the odds ratio
Odds ratio is an easy input for finding the implied probability of an event. Here are the odds ratios and corresponding probabilities that can be used to pick a side in a football bet.
Odds Ratio Probability of team 1
1:0 100%
2:1 2/3= 66.66%
1:2 50%
4:1 4/5 = 80%
In essence, the odds give an idea of the probability of an event. But, the discrepancies in odds is also a reality. So, punters should compare odds across the betting sites to find if there is any value embedded in an odd at any platform. They can select that platform to bet upon. Sometimes, punters use different accounts to bet on all sides and assure their win despite the result of the bet. The payout depends upon the overall income generated from winning odds minus the money lost in losing ones. So, there is definitely a rise in income, though small, when punters pick both sides at different platforms. It is called sure bet strategy.
Conclusion
Smaller odds or low odds are most likely to win because the probability of the event is quite high. One can study the match conditions and compare with the odds to find how the bet will fare. If all this becomes overwhelming, they can seek help from prediction sites like soccertipsters.net where accurate tips on bets are provided. Avail various features of the site such as Compare Odds, Livescore, etc. and add to your learning about how to pick odds and make correct predictions. It can help have successful betting sessions often leading to a boost in the bankroll.